What is a tech product bet?

What is a tech product bet?

What is a tech product bet?

A product bet is a simple way to capture a hunch you have about some potential value. These are sometimes used as a precursor to writing an epic user story or a user story. They follow a simple pattern.

What does a product bet look like?

A product bet usually has four components.

  • Data: some information you have.
  • Insight: a thought you have had about what that data tells you
  • Belief: a consideration about how what behaviour this might change
  • Bet: an informed guess at what value this might bring.

Here’s an example:

  • It takes 30 minutes of customer services  time to onboard a customer.
  • We onboard 1M customers per year.
  • 90% of target customers have a mobile device.


  • Full automation would save us £5M per annum.
  • Self on-boarding is an established behavior in the marketplace.
  • 80% customers will use an app to onboard themselves.
  • 800k users will use the app.
  • This will create savings of £4M per annum.

Writing bets is a really good thing to do after having written a product vision, when you are story mapping a new product. It helps bring new ideas to the table, relatively prioritise and get started quickly and effectively.

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